How Far Are Quantum Computers from Breaking RSA-2048?
Author: Guancheng Li of Tencent Xuanwu Lab
In today’s digital world, classical public-key cryptography such as RSA-2048 and ECC are the most widely used encryption standards, supporting the underlying trust of network security, financial transactions, and privacy protection. However, this cornerstone is facing the potential threat of quantum computing. In theory, quantum computers can factorize large integers and solve discrete logarithms at speeds far exceeding classical computers, thereby breaking RSA and ECC encryption in a short time. This prospect is both exciting and worrying.
The question is: what stage has the development of quantum computers reached? Some optimistically believe that the “countdown” to classical public-key cryptography has already begun; others doubt that truly usable quantum computers are still far away due to manufacturing difficulties. There are various opinions in the market, often optimistic or pessimistic, but the core question always lingers: how far are quantum computers from breaking classical public-key cryptography? We will attempt to answer this question by dismantling and analyzing the manufacturing bottlenecks and breakthrough hopes of quantum computers.